Health Care in Limbo and the effect on the ecomomy – Kiplinger

Elephants & Gorillas

National Quick-Service Franchise For Sale In Bozeman, MT

Weekly Market Insight 9.28.09

An outbreak of inflation is unlikely over the next 12 to 18 months because the economy is burdened by excess capacity in the labor market, factories, houses and commercial real estate. In fact, disinflation (slower price gains) and outright deflation (falling prices) are more likely in the near term, particularly for commercial real estate. The average effective rents for office and industrial space, which include concessions such as periods of free rent and above-standard tenant improvement allowances, have declined by 36 and 35 percent, respectively, from their recent peaks. The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index, which measures prices based on repeat sales, has slipped 39 percent from its peak in October 2007. Non-residential construction costs have declined by 7.6 percent over the past 12 months according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics while the average price of a development site has plunged by nearly 60 percent since December 2007 as reported by Real Capital Analytics. Though a near-term bout of inflation is unlikely, inflation could crop up as the recovery gains momentum. Under such a scenario, credit demand in the private sector could begin to compete with borrowing by the Treasury Department, which needs to finance a national debt that is expected to more than double over the next 10 years to $17.5 trillion according to the Office of Management and Budget. Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, in a speech last Friday, recognized this threat and suggested that the Fed will need to aggressively raise interest rates at some point down the road to head off inflation. If the Fed were to adopt such a policy, it would translate into a weaker recovery in return for lower inflation over the next few years.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Grubb & Ellis

For a free consultation of your commercial real estate needs please contact Sean Thompson at 406.539.0082 or sean.thompson@grubb-ellis.com OR Joe Cobb at 406.579.2999 or joe.cobb@grubb-ellis.com. www.MTcommercialRE.com.

Where the Jobs Are, Part Two

Where the Jobs Are, Part Two

Employers in health care and social assistance, educational services, and government have added a combined 836,800 net payroll jobs since the recession began in December 2007, as discussed in last week’s Good News Friday. What about the geographical distribution of job changes; have any states generated jobs since the recession began? Texas, Oklahoma, Wyoming, North Dakota and Alaska have more jobs in March 2009 than they did in December 2007 thanks to high energy and commodity prices that extended through most of 2008. The District of Columbia, with its reliance on the federal government, also added jobs. Since the recession worsened in September 2008, even these stalwarts have lost jobs with the exception of Alaska and North Dakota. Nevertheless, the recession is likely to be shallower in this region of the country. Which states will bounce back more quickly when the recession ends? Look for metropolitan areas specializing in technology, biotech and renewable energy and those able to attract young, educated workers to prosper in the long run – areas like Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Silicon Valley, San Diego, Denver, Austin, Raleigh-Durham, the greater D.C. area and Boston. Recent articles in The Atlantic and The Wall Street Journal discuss which areas are likely to enjoy a competitive long-term advantage. But don’t count out other markets for real estate investment opportunities (debt or equity), particularly those with high barriers to entry. Cap rate spreads between primary, secondary and tertiary markets, which had compressed during the bubble years, are expected to widen again, meaning that secondary and tertiary markets may begin to offer more attractive yields – a greater risk premium – relative to primary markets.

Have a great weekend.

Best regards,
Bob

Robert Bach
SVP, Chief Economist
Grubb & Ellis
312.698.6754

Where the Jobs Are- Good news Friday

Where the Jobs Are

Three major sectors of the labor market have added jobs since the recession began in December 2007: health care and social assistance (+495,700), educational services (+97,100) and government (+244,000).

 The health care and social assistance sector is recession-resistant, although not recession-proof. This sector has lost jobs in only four isolated months since 1990. Two trends are driving this expansion: the aging of the baby boom generation (older Americans visit doctors more often) and the development of new options for treatment of medical conditions, resulting in more doctor visits per capita among all age groups compared with 10 years ago. Growth in this sector is fueling demand for space in medical office buildings and related facilities.

 The educational services sector is growing as laid off workers seek retraining. The total square footage of office leases signed by educational services tenants slipped by 8 percent in 2008 compared with 2005, whereas the recession drove overall office leasing activity down by 63 percent during this period. This sector will continue to expand well beyond the recession; the school-age population will grow briskly in the next decade, filling seats in primary and secondary schools, colleges and universities, and all types of technical and trade schools. Some of this expansion will generate demand for space in office, industrial and even retail buildings.

 Lastly, government hiring is focused at the federal level since the recession has eaten into tax revenues collected by state and local governments, many of which are required by statute to balance their budgets. The $787 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and the Obama administration’s $3.6 trillion budget for fiscal year 2010 will continue to fuel hiring by government agencies, which will create some level of demand for office space in Washington, DC and other areas with federal offices.

Have a great weekend.

Best regards,
Bob

Robert Bach
SVP, Chief Economist
Grubb & Ellis
312.698.6754

New Rules for SBA’s ‘Goodwill’ for Small Businesses

By Sharon McLoone
washingtonpost.com Staff Writer

The business brokers, who guide buyers and sellers of companies through those transactions, say a new government rule could dramatically harm their businesses while blunting the ability of many recently laid-off Americans to find new avenues of work and income.

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Grubb & Ellis is proud to announce the new listing of the Former City Hall in Downtown Bozeman

Grubb & Ellis | Montana Commercial is proud to announce the exclusive listing for the Former City Hall Building in Downtown Bozeman. The former City Hall is located on the corner Rouse & Main St in downtown Bozeman. The building is 13,160SF and sits on four separate city lots totalling 20,625SF. The site offers great Main St exposure and sits within the B3 downtown zoning disctrict making it prime for a redevelopment which could include office, retail, and residential.

For more information please visit: or contact Joe Cobb @ 406.579.2999 or josephcobb@gmail.com or Sean Thompson @ 406.539.0082 or sean.thompson@grubb-ellis.com.

Vanilla Shell vs. Grey Shell

       When leasing or buying new office or retail space you will more than likely run across the two following terms: Vanilla Shell and Grey Shell. Many people are confused as to the difference between the two and what is included with each. While each market and Landlord/Seller is different, the following are basic definitions of the two and what is most commonly included. The term Vanilla Shell (or warm shell) is a commercial real estate term that refers to a Landlord/Seller delivering a space to a tenant with the basic finishing’s. The finishing’s typically include fire taped walls ready to paint, electrical panel and outlets, sealed concrete or finished floor, finished ceiling with lighting, HVAC including duct work and controls, finished bathroom (if no common bathroom), and sprinkler system if required by code. Grey Shell (or cold shell) is space offered by a Landlord/Seller that is completely unfinished. You will generally find bare stud walls, unfinished floors, and no plumbing or electrical. The space will more than likely include a HVAC unit but no duct work or controls and if required by code, the sprinkler system may be installed but not dropped to finish ceiling height. Vanilla Shell offers tenants a close to finished space allowing for a relatively quick move-in time. Grey Shell will require more work to get completed but offers greater flexibility for custom finishes and design. The finish cost for Vanilla Shell can run between $5 to $20/SF where Grey Shell can be upwards of $30 to over $100/SF depending on how custom the build out is. Most Landlords/Sellers will offer some type of allowance for tenants to finish their space which can sometimes be negotiated into the lease or purchase terms. Typically, the longer the lease term, the more flexible Landlords are willing to get. For a free consultation on your commercial real estate needs contact Sean Thompson @ 406.539.0082 or sean.thompson@grubb-ellis.com OR Joe Cobb @ 406.579.2999 or josephcobb@gmail.com www.MTcommercialRE.com

Explosion in Downtown Bozeman:

http://www.newwest.net/city/article/explosion_in_downtown_bozeman_destorys_two_bars_evacuates_two_blocks/C396/L396/

A natural gas explosion early this morning in downtown Bozeman destroyed several businesses, including two bars, an art gallery and the American Legion. Police officials confirmed this afternoon that only one person is unaccounted for and there are no reports yet on injuries.